Rerun

promise

The recurring promise of full self-driving "next year"

You're probably here because of the Apr 2026 rerun. This is the 14th time since 2016 (archive start) this has been promised. The previous rerun was Jan 2026.

About this story

Since 2016, Elon Musk has repeatedly set near-term dates for fully autonomous Teslas. These included a coast-to-coast self-driving demo by 2017, over a million robotaxis by 2020, and unsupervised Full Self-Driving "this year" or "next year" from 2021 through 2026. Tesla's consumer system is still sold as "FSD (Supervised)," which requires an attentive driver. Since June 2025, Tesla has run a small, geofenced Robotaxi service in Texas, adding monitor-free rides in 2026.

Sources: 1, 2

20162026

Apr 2026 – May 2026 Q1 2026 call pushes unsupervised FSD for owners to "probably" Q4 2026; May 18 "widespread by end of year" remark

On Tesla's Q1 2026 earnings call on April 22, 2026, Elon Musk was asked when unsupervised FSD would reach customer cars. He answered "I'm just guessing here, but probably in the fourth quarter," and cited complex intersections, bad road markings and weather. On the same call he said he hoped for unsupervised robotaxi operations in "a dozen or so states" by the end of the year, and said Hardware 3 cars cannot achieve unsupervised FSD. At that point, Tesla's Q1 2026 Update listed FSD (Supervised) v14.3 as its latest release and said unsupervised Robotaxi rides had launched in Dallas and Houston in April. The update listed Cybercab at pilot production. On April 24, two days after the call, Musk posted on X that "Cybercab has started production" (Claims Journal). On May 18, Musk said Tesla had "some vehicles operating with no people inside and no safety monitors in three cities in Texas" and that this would "probably be widespread in the US by the end of this year." Electrek, citing the third-party Robotaxi Tracker, put that unsupervised fleet at about 30 vehicles, though the same Electrek article also gives figures of fewer than 30 and 38. Autoblog put it at roughly 30. Bloomberg noted Tesla had not disclosed its fleet sizes.

  • electrek.co article
    I'm just guessing here, but probably in the fourth quarter.
  • claimsjournal.com article
    Cybercab has started production
  • electrek.co article
    probably be widespread in the US by the end of this year.

Sources: electrek.co needs a second source · claimsjournal.com needs a second source · autoblog.com needs a second source · assets-ir.tesla.com needs a second source · electrek.co needs a second source

Jan 2026 First rides with no monitor inside; seven new cities targeted for first half of 2026

On January 22, 2026, Musk posted that Tesla had "just started" Austin robotaxi drives "with no safety monitor in the car" (as quoted by InsideEVs and Electrek). Tesla's Ashok Elluswamy described "a few unsupervised vehicles mixed in with the broader robotaxi fleet with safety monitors" (InsideEVs). Electrek and InsideEVs reported video showing the Robotaxis without a safety monitor being followed by a trailing Tesla. Tesla's Q4 2025 update said it had begun removing safety monitors "on a limited basis." It showed the Bay Area service still using a safety driver and set new first-half-2026 targets for Dallas, Houston, Phoenix, Miami, Orlando, Tampa and Las Vegas.

  • x.com social post
    Just started Tesla Robotaxi drives in Austin with no safety monitor in the car.
  • electrek.co article
    The Robotaxi cars spotted without “safety monitor” were all being followed by a trailing black Tesla supervising the “driverless” Robotaxi.
  • sec.gov statement
    began removing the safety monitor from customer rides in January on a limited basis

Sources: sec.gov needs a second source · insideevs.com needs a second source · electrek.co needs a second source

Oct 2025 – Nov 2025 NHTSA probe, then new year-end 2025 robotaxi targets and an April 2026 Cybercab date

On Tesla's Oct 22, 2025 earnings call, Musk said Tesla expected "no safety drivers in at least large parts of Austin by the end of this year." He also said it expected to run robotaxis in "about eight to ten metro areas by the end of the year," depending on regulatory approvals. At that point, Tesla executive Ashok Elluswamy said the Austin fleet ran with no one in the driver's seat, while the Bay Area still had a person in the driver's seat because of regulations. FSD sold to customers was still a system that "requires drivers to pay attention and intervene if needed" (Reuters). Earlier that month, on Oct 9, NHTSA had opened a preliminary evaluation of 2.88 million FSD-equipped Teslas. It cited reports of cars running red lights and driving against traffic during lane changes. At the Nov 6 shareholder meeting, Musk said Cybercab production would begin at Gigafactory Texas in April 2026.

  • fool.com statement
    We are expecting to have no safety drivers in at least large parts of Austin by the end of this year.
  • insideevs.com article
    production of the Cybercab will begin at the automaker's Gigafactory Texas in April 2026
  • wnflsports.com article
    induced vehicle behavior that violated traffic safety laws
  • youtube.com video

Sources: wnflsports.com needs a second source · fool.com needs a second source · insideevs.com needs a second source

Jul 2025 Ride-hailing for "probably half the population of the U.S." by year-end

On Tesla's Q2 2025 earnings call on July 23, 2025, Musk said: "I think we will probably have autonomous ride-hailing in probably half the population of the US by the end of the year." He added: "That's at least our goal, subject to regulatory approvals." At that point Tesla's robotaxi service had launched in Austin in June with a safety driver in the passenger seat, and it was open only to invitees. On the same call, Tesla said it was seeking approval for the Bay Area, Nevada, Arizona and Florida. Ashok Elluswamy, Tesla's head of self-driving (per Electrek), said the Bay Area service would start with a person in the driver's seat. On December 31, 2025, InsideEVs reported that the service ran in Austin and San Francisco and that safety riders were still in the Austin cars. It also said the Austin fleet might be only about three dozen vehicles, citing an analysis reported by Electrek.

  • eletric-vehicles.com statement
    I think we will probably have autonomous ride-hailing in probably half the population of the US by the end of the year.
  • fortune.com article
    As soon as we get the approvals and we prove our safety, then we'll be launching autonomous ride hailing in most of the country
  • electrek.co article
    the Robotaxi service consists of an internal fleet operating within a geo-fenced area, currently only in Austin, Texas

Sources: fortune.com reliable · eletric-vehicles.com needs a second source · electrek.co needs a second source · insideevs.com needs a second source

Jun 2025 Austin Robotaxi launches with a safety monitor on board

On Tesla's Q4 2024 earnings call on January 29, 2025, Elon Musk said, "Tesla will launch unsupervised full self-driving as a paid service in Austin in June." On June 22, 2025, Tesla started invite-only rides in Austin at a flat $4.20 fare. The fleet was about ten 2025 Model Ys, a Tesla employee sat in the front passenger seat as a "safety monitor," and service could be limited in bad weather. Tesla's 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026 refers to the Robotaxi service's "June 2025 launch."

  • electrek.co article
    The invitations confirm extreme limitations in the service, with the most significant one being the presence of a “safety monitor” in the passenger seat.
  • techcrunch.com article
    And, notably, a Tesla employee will be sitting in the right front passenger seat as a “safety monitor.”
  • cbtnews.com article
    The safety agency is seeking further information after footage surfaced showing one of Tesla's driverless vehicles using the wrong lane and another reportedly speeding.

Sources: electrek.co needs a second source · techcrunch.com needs a second source · cbtnews.com needs a second source · sec.gov needs a second source

Jan 2025 Unsupervised full self-driving as a paid service in Austin in June

On Tesla's Q4 2024 earnings call on January 29, 2025, Elon Musk said Tesla would launch unsupervised Full Self-Driving as a paid service in Austin in June, "no one in the car." He also predicted unsupervised FSD in California "later this year, as well as in many other regions of the US." At that point the unsupervised version had not been released: TechCrunch called it "yet-to-be-released." Electrek reported that on the previous earnings call Musk had promised to "launch unsupervised self-driving in California and Texas in Q2," and called the Austin claim "in line with" that earlier promise. Fortune noted that NHTSA was investigating FSD after four collisions, including a fatal crash.

  • fortune.com article
    We feel confident in being able to do an initial launch of unsupervised, no one in the car, full self-driving in Austin in June,
  • electrek.co article
    I predict Tesla will launch unsupervised FSD in California later this year, as well as in many other regions of the US.
  • techcrunch.com article
    which will use the yet-to-be-released “unsupervised” version of its Full Self-Driving software
  • youtube.com video

Sources: fortune.com reliable · techcrunch.com needs a second source · electrek.co needs a second source

Oct 2024 "We, Robot" event: Cybercab shown, "unsupervised FSD … next year"

At Tesla's "We, Robot" event on October 10, 2024, Musk said he expected Tesla to start "unsupervised FSD in Texas and California next year" with the Model 3 and Model Y. He also said the Cybercab would cost under $30,000 and be in production by 2026 or "before 2027," while admitting he tends to be too optimistic about timelines (TechCrunch, Oct 10). TechCrunch's April 2024 coverage, published before the event, had documented his earlier promises: a coast-to-coast self-driving trip by end of 2017 (made in 2016), robotaxis in 2020 (made in 2019), and a dedicated robotaxi by 2024. TechCrunch said the first two did not happen. By December 31, 2025, InsideEVs reported that unsupervised FSD still wasn't available. Tesla's Austin robotaxi service had launched in June 2025, but safety riders were still on board.

Sources: techcrunch.com needs a second source · techcrunch.com needs a second source · insideevs.com needs a second source

Feb 2023 Tesla recalls 362,758 vehicles with FSD Beta; Musk calls the word 'recall' wrong (checkpoint)

Fortune notes that "Full Self-Driving" went on sale in late 2015 and that Musk "at one point had promised that a fleet of autonomous robotaxis would be in use in 2020." In Tesla's own Feb 15, 2023 recall filing with NHTSA, it called FSD Beta "an SAE Level 2 driver support feature." That means the driver "must constantly supervise the feature and intervene." The recall covered 362,758 vehicles, every car that had FSD Beta or was waiting to receive it. Fortune reported that NHTSA asked for the recall on Jan. 25, 2023. According to the filing, Tesla agreed on Feb. 7 "while not concurring with the agency's analysis." This wave is a record of what had been delivered by then, not a new promise.

  • static.nhtsa.gov statement
    FSD Beta is an SAE Level 2 driver support feature that can provide steering and braking/acceleration support to the driver
  • The Hill article
    The word 'recall' for an over-the-air software update is anachronistic and just flat wrong!
  • fortune.com article
    Musk at one point had promised that a fleet of autonomous robotaxis would be in use in 2020.

Sources: static.nhtsa.gov needs a second source · fortune.com reliable · cnbc.com reliable · The Hill reliable

Jan 2022 I would be shocked if we do not achieve full self-driving safer than human this year

On Tesla's Q4 2021 earnings call on Jan 26, 2022, Elon Musk said he "would be shocked" if Tesla did not achieve full self-driving "safer than human this year." He also said his "personal guess" was that Tesla would "achieve full self-driving this year." At that point, Tesla's Q4 2021 shareholder deck said FSD Beta was on nearly 60,000 vehicles in the US. Tesla's website said the features then available "do not make the vehicle autonomous." By Nov 24, 2022, FSD Beta had been opened to every North American owner who had bought the package. It still required the driver to "remain vigilant and ready to take control at all times," and it was still classed as a Level 2 driver-assist system.

  • fool.com broadcast
    So, yeah, I would be shocked if we do not achieve full self-driving safer than human this year. I would be shocked.
  • thestreet.com article
    However, both Autopilot and FSD Beta do not make Tesla vehicles fully autonomous.
  • electrek.co article
    It’s not “next year” anymore, but this year.

Sources: fool.com needs a second source · insideevs.com needs a second source · thestreet.com needs a second source · electrek.co needs a second source

Jul 2020 – Oct 2020 The thread's 2020 instance: "Very close" to Level 5, then a limited FSD beta

On July 9, 2020, in a prerecorded video at the World AI Conference in Shanghai, Musk said Tesla was "very close" to Level 5 autonomy. He said he remained confident the "basic functionality for Level 5 autonomy" would be "complete this year" (Bloomberg via Transport Topics; Electrek). At that time, Tesla still required Autopilot users to be fully attentive and ready to take over (Bloomberg). Electrek described "Traffic Light and Stop Sign Control" as a new feature. On October 20, 2020, Tesla began rolling out "FSD Beta" ("Autosteer on City Streets," as The Drive names it) to a small number of owners. According to a screenshot shared on Twitter and reported by Digital Trends, the on-screen warning said drivers "must always keep your hands on the wheel" (Digital Trends). In emails to the California DMV, made public in March 2021, a Tesla associate general counsel wrote that City Streets stayed at SAE Level 2. The Drive reported that about 200 people had access by December 2020 (The Drive).

  • ttnews.com article
    I remain confident that we will have the basic functionality for Level 5 autonomy complete this year,
  • electrek.co article
    FSD beta rollout happening tonight. Will be extremely slow & cautious, as it should.
  • digitaltrends.com article
    It may do the wrong thing at the worst time, so you must always keep your hands on the wheel and pay extra attention to the road.
  • youtube.com video
    I remain confident that we will have the basic functionality for Level 5 autonomy complete this year.

Sources: ttnews.com needs a second source · electrek.co needs a second source · digitaltrends.com needs a second source · thedrive.com needs a second source

Apr 2019 Autonomy Day, "over a million robotaxis" by 2020

At Tesla's Autonomy Investor Day on 22 April 2019, Elon Musk said "next year for sure, we'll have over a million robotaxis on the road." He said the cars would join a Tesla ride-hailing network through a software update, with Tesla taking 25–30% of the fares (TechCrunch; TheStreet). He also said the software would be reliable enough that "no one needs to pay attention" by the middle of 2020 (TechCrunch). At the time, Tesla's "Full Self-Driving" package, priced at $5,000 or more, included Summon and Navigate on Autopilot, and Tesla cautioned drivers that its Autopilot features "require active driver supervision and do not make the vehicle autonomous" (CNBC). As of May 2026, Carscoops reported that Tesla's robotaxi service had launched in Texas in 2025 and had since expanded to other cities, including in California, and that a third-party tracker showed 20 unsupervised Tesla robotaxis in use over the previous week.

Sources: techcrunch.com needs a second source · cnbc.com reliable · thedrive.com needs a second source · carscoops.com needs a second source · thestreet.com needs a second source

Feb 2018 Coast-to-coast deadline missed; new estimate of "three months, six months at the outside"

  1. When Tesla introduced its "Hardware 2.0" Autopilot hardware in October 2016, Musk said Tesla would prove it could drive itself with a cross-country demonstration run in 2017 (The Drive).
  2. On Feb 7, 2018, Tesla's Q4 2017 shareholder letter called the drive "upcoming." On the earnings call, Musk said he had "missed the mark" and that Tesla could "probably" do the drive "in three months, six months at the outside" (TechCrunch).
  3. What had been delivered by then, per Electrek: Tesla was selling "Enhanced Autopilot" features for $5,000 that were supposed to arrive by software update in 2017, and "Full Self-Driving Capability" as a $3,000 add-on. Electrek reported that the new features named in the letter were delayed and were now promised for 2018.
  4. Six months later, on the Aug 1, 2018 earnings call, no drive had happened. Musk said Tesla "might be able to pull off coast-to-coast demo toward the end of the year" (Jalopnik).
  • techcrunch.com article
    do a coast-to-coast drive in three months, six months at the outside.
  • electrek.co article
    The upcoming autonomous coast-to-coast drive will showcase a major leap forward for our self-driving technology.
  • teslarati.com article
    We could have done the coast-to-coast drive, but it would have required too much specialized code to effectively game it or make it somewhat brittle

Sources: techcrunch.com needs a second source · electrek.co needs a second source · thedrive.com needs a second source · jalopnik.com needs a second source · teslarati.com needs a second source

Oct 2016 "Full self-driving hardware" in every new Tesla; Musk targets an LA-to-New York autonomous drive by end of 2017

On Oct. 19, 2016, Tesla said all vehicles in production, including the upcoming Model 3, would have the hardware needed for full self-driving "at a safety level substantially greater than that of a human driver": eight cameras, 12 ultrasonic sensors and a forward radar (CNBC). On a press call, Musk said the goal was "a demonstration drive of full autonomy all the way from LA to New York" by the end of the next year (TechCrunch). At that point, the self-driving software still needed validation and regulatory approval, which Musk said would take time (CNBC; NPR). NPR also reported that the new hardware would at first lack some existing Autopilot features. By the deadline: the drive never happened, and in February 2018 Musk said it would have produced a "brittle" solution (Inverse, 2019).

  • techcrunch.com article
    a demonstration drive of full autonomy all the way from LA to New York
  • cnbc.com article
    safety level substantially greater than that of a human driver
  • NPR article
    Tesla drives itself (no human input at all) thru urban streets to highway to streets, then finds a parking spot
  • youtube.com video
    a demonstration drive of full autonomy all the way from LA to New York

Sources: techcrunch.com needs a second source · cnbc.com reliable · consumerreports.org needs a second source · inverse.com needs a second source · NPR reliable

Jan 2016 Musk says a Tesla can be summoned "from across the country" within about two years

On January 10, 2016, Musk spoke to reporters about Tesla's 7.1 software update. He said "within two years you'll be able to summon your car from across the country" and added that he "might be slightly optimistic." He tweeted the same day that "in ~2 years" summon should work anywhere connected by land. He also repeated that in 24 to 36 months, cars would be technically capable of fully autonomous driving. What shipped at the time was a beta Summon feature: the owner had to stand within 10 feet, the car had to be within 33 feet of its parking space, and Tesla said to use it only on private property. Musk called it "more like remote-control parking." In October 2019, Consumer Reports tested Smart Summon, which Tesla said could drive the car across a parking lot with no one inside. CR found it wandered erratically "like a drunken or distracted driver."

  • forbes.com article
    So, let's say, if you're in New York and your car is in Los Angeles, it will find its way to you,
  • x.com social post
    In ~2 years, summon should work anywhere connected by land & not blocked by borders, eg you're in LA and the car is in NY
  • inc.com article
    “I actually think, and I might be slightly optimistic on this, within two years you’ll be able to summon your car from across the country,” Musk said on a conference call with reporters.

Sources: forbes.com needs a second source · inc.com needs a second source · Yahoo News reliable · consumerreports.org needs a second source